Find below my speech made to parliament this afternoon.
Presiding Officer
Any cook will tell you that both the correct ingredients and the correct timing are essential to get a soufflé to rise. Get either wrong and the whole thing will irretrievably collapse.
In what increasingly has all the characteristics of the greatest Scottish Government miscalculation of the devolution era, Nicola Sturgeon’s gambit of just a fortnight ago, in calling for a second independence referendum has been met with the loudest raspberry from every corner of Scotland.
The threat of a second independence referendum has, until now, been the default sanction for every perceived SNP grievance. Its power, such as it was, rested in it remaining a threat and not an action; like every deterrent it is a successful influencer in negotiation only if never actually triggered. But a fortnight ago, triggered it was.
In the 15 days since politics in Scotland has changed.
If the First Minister conceived a surprise of timing on Monday March 13th just three days later the inherent hollowness of her demand was laid bare when the Prime Minister in her own matching surprise of timing said ‘Now is not the time.’
Opinion polls over that week and weekend reflected no increase in support for either independence or in particular for any second referendum. While the Leader of the SNP addressed her evangelical party faithful, ironically an audience not known for its independence, people on the streets of Scotland, in shops, in bus queues in their homes, in pubs and restaurants remained unmoved. Like the Prime Minister, opinion polls confirm that people in Scotland have likewise determined that ‘now is not the time’. Indeed, measured against Nicola Sturgeon’s previously preferred yardstick of clear majority demand for a fresh referendum sustained over many months, it is difficult to imagine when the people of Scotland will be persuaded that we have again arrived at that time.
In her speech in this chamber a week ago, Nicola Sturgeon generously entertained MSPs to a repeat airing of her SNP conference address. While it may have moved those behind her to tears, it left Scotland cold and unimpressed. No new arguments were rehearsed in support of her obsession, just the same dreary old repertoire of grievance and dirge from 2014. By now we knew that barely one third of Scots thought a further referendum was any kind of priority or response to the failing domestic record the SNP Scottish Government.
Nicola Sturgeon asserts that Westminster should be bound by her Scottish election manifesto, just as she asserted that she would stop Trident in the same campaign. The pledge to hold a second referendum is increasingly now seen for what it was – a pledge to deliver something over which the First Minister of Scotland does not have power or authority. She seeks comfort in this majority losing 2016 manifesto which at a stroke by the way, renders the SNP MPs elected on her 2015 manifesto without any mandate to campaign for a referendum whatsoever – after all, they were elected in a campaign where Nicola Sturgeon explicitly said ‘independence is not an issue in this election’.
Her own compromised authority rests on an election in which she remained in office despite losing her majority; something no Prime Minister has successfully sought to do in 100 years at Westminster.
And it is not just her authority which is diminished. Look again at the election results last year….
But the direction of travel is clear. Persist with this unwanted constitutional division and the trigger pulled is not for the Union but for the self-destruction of this SNP government.
And yet, with this compromised authority Nicola Sturgeon asserts that Westminster must abide by any vote tonight. But as has been repeatedly demonstrated this is a government enduring defeat after defeat in this place and ignoring every argument, every resolution which it has confronted and then lost the support of this chamber. It’s just an inconvenient truth that the First Minister can no longer snap her fingers at this legislature and insist on her own way but a truth nonetheless and one her government simply chooses to ignore.
In 2014 the referendum which took place finally enjoyed the support of 92% of the people for its being held and the support of every MSP, a ‘super majority’ from all 5 parties in this Scottish Parliament, representing every shade of opinion. Today barely one third of the public support such a poll and only 2 of the 5 parties do so. Neither the political nor the public support exists.
Briefly Nicola Sturgeon understood this. At an earlier evangelical convention of her ground troops and crucially a gathering convened after the Conservative government had been returned at the 2015 Westminster General Election with a majority and on a manifesto with a commitment to hold an EU referendum, she said this
‘I respect the decision that our country made last year. So let me be clear. To propose another referendum in the next parliament without strong evidence that a significant number of those who voted No having changed their minds would be wrong and we won’t do it. It would not be respecting the decision that people made.’
Presiding Officer, my constituents in Eastwood turned out in record numbers in September 2014 and voted for Scotland to remain in the UK and won.
In June 2015, with one of the 10 highest margins anywhere in the UK, my constituents voted for the UK to remain in the EU and lost.
My constituents and I respect the result of both referendums. This First Minister respects the votes and judgements in neither.
There has been no significant number of those who voted No changing their minds.
In the 15 days since the Leader of the SNP plunged Scotland into this unwanted and unnecessary debate, opinion has shifted but not as the First Minister imagined or planned.
There are no silent Unionists now. The First Minister may refer to ‘anxiety and resentment’ but it is anger that is felt. She has become the most polarising politician in Scotland in over a generation.
It is her hubris which now drives this effort to kick start a campaign Scotland does not want.
In contrast Theresa May & Ruth Davidson stand resolute as they have throughout every twist and turn since the plans were hatched to impose a further unwanted referendum on an unwilling Scotland.
Well when we voted in 2014, Scotland’s voice was clear and with strength and resolution the people of Scotland spoke. We said No. And we meant it.
Before Britain has left the EU and the arrangements thereafter are transparent and until there is clear and sustained evidence of public support among Scots for it there can be and there will be no second independence referendum.
That is our pledge. And the people of Scotland can trust us on this point – we can and we will deliver on it.